!!!
COMPS:
Tony Karpinski
Butler vs. LSU
Play:Butler +2.5
This team has played together for 4 straight years and play with chemistry. No one from the team has left early for the NBA and they are a veteran team which doesn't turn the ball over. They remind me of last years Davidson team, or George Mason of a few years ago. Butler is the play in this game.
LT Profits
Michigan +5.5
The Clemson Tigers got off to a tremendous start this season, but they sputtered badly down the stretch in the ACC and we feel they are an extremely vulnerable favorite here vs. the Michigan Wolverines.
Clemson went 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games, and they got knocked out in the first round of the ACC Tournament by a lightly regarded Georgia Tech team. As if that is not bad enough, this team also lost to Virginia a few games before this late skid started.
.
The Tigers are known for their pressure defense, but apparently teams have figured out how to solve them and find the open man. Clemson is allowing a hearty 78.4 points per game over the last five games, horrendously allowing those opponents to shoot 49.5 percent from the field.
Michigan finished at 20-13 SU and a nice 15-11-1, 57.7 percent ATS, and before losing in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois in a virtual road game, they had gone 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games with the lone ATS loss coming in overtime as an underdog.
Remember that this team did beat Duke and UCLA during the early non-conference portion of the schedule, so team has proven itself somewhat vs. quality competition, which helps negate the fact that this was a down year for the Big Ten.
Finally, do not forget that Michigan is a sparkling 11-3 ATS in post-season play over the last five years, and we look for the Wolverines to improve on that here with an outright upset.
Pick: Michigan +5.5
Who2BetOn
The Mississippi State Bulldogs may have won the SEC Tournament, but that does not mean much to us given the mediocrity of that conference this year, and we feel the Washington Huskies have a huge class edge here.
Yes, Washington lost to Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament, but there is no shame in that and the Huskies had won nine of their previous 10 games with the only loss coming on the road at UCLA. The regular season Pac-10 champs finished at 25-8, and they are also a sparkling 18-11-1 against the spread. The Huskies rank 16 in the Pomeroy Ratings, and they are a great offensive rebounding team that gets a lot of second chance points.
That is important here, as Mississippi State is a poor rebounding team. Sure, their conference tournament run brought them to 23-12 for the year, but again most of that came in a weak conference and because of this, the Bulldogs are ranked just 61 by Pomeroy. Also, Pomeroy ranks the Pac-10 second in the country as a whole, behind only the ACC and ahead of the Big East.
So the bottom line here is that Washington is the better team and they come from a much stronger conference, and that combination should result in a safe cover at what looks like a rather modest spot here.
Pick: Washington -5
Cajun Sports
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -9
Portland is coming off a ten point road win at Conseco Fieldhouse last night over the Pacers now must face the best home team in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland last played on Tuesday night and barely got by the Orlando Magic 97 to 93 as a 6.5 point home favorite. The Cavs are 17-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and 73-46 ATS the last three seasons. They are 22-9 ATS at the Q this year which is best in the league and face a Trailblazers team that is 14-19 SU and 13-20 ATS on the highway. Portland struggles on the road as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points going 2-6 ATS their last eight. Cleveland is 23-9 ATS versus the Northwest Division, 17-8 ATS versus teams from the Western Conference and has covered five of the last six in this series including five straight at home. Cleveland is 4 ½ games ahead of Boston in the East and a game ahead of the Lakers overall, each game holds significant value and Cleveland will not just win they play all out and should cover the number over this Portland team that is playing their fourth road game in five nights.
Graded Selection: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers 110 Portland Trailblazers 90
Craig Trapp
Texas A&M vs. BYU
Play: BYU -2.5
Sometimes when you look at a game you review all the trends and even though they are leaning to one team you still take the other team. Well today that is the case. All the trends go to favor A&M lets take a look at the trends and ATS records:
Recent Betting Trends:
Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog.
Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
ATS RECORDS
Texas A&M: 15-9 ATS overall 9-5 ATS away from home
BYU: 15-14 ATS overall 9-5 ATS away from home
BYU was defeated in last years tournament by A&M so this years rematch is much awaited by BYU. The whole off season the Cougars were motivated by the loss to A&M and they will win today and pay the loss back big time today. Big 12 is way over rated this year and many of A&M wins were against teams that did not make the tourney. If anyone watched the BYU @ ASU game you understand how good this Cougar team is losing by only 1 point. If BYU plays their well known team basketball they win going away. SCORE BYU 68 - Tex A/M 61
Nelly
California - over Maryland
Maryland came away with a big win over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament and nearly knocked off Duke but conference games are much different than tournament games and Terps will have trouble matching up as well against an unfamiliar foe. Maryland was crushed against Gonzaga, a team that compares favorably with many Pac-10 teams and the Terps closed the season going 7-10 but managed to win just enough of the key games to get into the dance. Maryland is grossly over-seeded at #10 as they were likely one of the last teams in the tournament field and Cal is the better scoring team and the better defensive team statistically despite playing in a more defense oriented conference. Both teams lost to Florida State by three-points in a common opponent game but Maryland also had several awful performances this season, and went 6-9 S/U in games away from home. California did not end the season ideally with a quick exit from the Pac-10 tournament to USC, but keep in mind that the tournament that the Trojans won was basically at home and Cal played them as tough as anyone on that run. Cal won at Washington, at Arizona, at Washington State, at UNLV, and at Utah this season so there has been several quality wins away from home. Maryland has not had much postseason success since the title run in 2002 and the Pac-10 is generally undervalued in the postseason based on the national fanfare for the ACC and the Big East. Cal's starting lineup is all upperclassmen and this Bears team is ready to make a dent in the tournament.
JIM FEIST
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS.
Take: UNDER
Reason: How many points and assists are the Warriors missing without Stephen Jackson and Jamal Crawford? 40.2 points, 11 assist per game. The Warriors also announced that starting center Andris Biedrins will miss at least two weeks with a sprained left ankle. That's a lot of offense on the shelf. They take on an angry Laker team that is off a last second home loss to the 76ers. LA is focused more on defense with the playoffs approaching, according to coach Phil Jackson, and they are on a 7-2 run under the total. Expect a strong defensive effort by the home team.
Play the Warriors/Lakers under the total.
Greg Daraban
VCU vs UCLA
The stage is set for the 2009 NCAA Tournament In what should be a solid set of games at Philly the Rams take on the Bruins. UCLA was 25-8 and played some very good ball for HC Howland VCU is good and will have the fan support but UCLA can win and cover in a hostile arena.They have several players including Shipp and Collison who have played in the Final 4.
Take 722 UCLA
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Portland
The Trailblazers take on King James on his court at the 'Q' in Cleveland as they look to avenge 6-point home loss suffered earlier this year in Portland. With the Cavs in off a home revenge win over Orlando and the Blazers 12-5 SU and ATS in same season revengers this season we'll grab the points with Portland here tonight.
Larry Ness
Morgan State at Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma
Todd Bozeman led California to the "Big Dance" three times, before he resigned in 1996 amid an NCAA investigation. He got the job at Morgan St three years ago and won just 13 games in his first season. The Bears went 14-2 last year and won the MEAC's regular season title but lost 62-60 to Coppin State in the MEAC championship game, on a driving layup with 2 seconds left. Coppin State advanced to the NCAA tournament at 16-20 (the most losses by any school to the make the NCAAs) while Morgan St lost 94-62 at Va Tech in the first round of the NIT. Morgan St won the MEAC regular season title again this year (13-3) and this time, won the tourney with an easy 83-69 win over Norfolk State. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid as the Bears earned their second MEAC tournament title and first since 1977. Nice story but Morgan St is in way over its head vs the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners, led by Blake Griffin (21.9-4.4), entered their game in Austin vs Texas 25-1 and poised to take over the AP's top spot with a win. However, Griffin went down with a concussion and the Longhorns won 73-68. Griffin wasn't able to play in the team's next game either, a home loss to Kansas. Griffin has returned but the Sooners lost their first game in the Big 12 tourney, 71-70 to Oklahoma St, and the Sooners enter this game 27-5 overall and a No. 2 seed. The Sooners are not deep but their starting-five is capable of making a Final 4 run. Griffin's 6-7 older brother Taylor (9.6-6.0) starts alongside his younger brother with three guards. Warren (14.7), a 6-5 freshman, has had an excellent season, joined by vets Crocker (9.6) who is 6-6, and PG Johnson (8.8-3.9 APG). OU's key reserves are the 6-6 Pattillo (7.1-3.9) and guard Davis (5.1). Morgan St employs a three-guard lineup as well, with Holmes (16.9-5.5), Bolen (9.2-4.9 APG) and Barnes (8.6). The 6-5 Kately (11.0-5.4) is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-8 freshman Thompson (8.9-7.0). The Sooners were well on their way to a No. 1 seed when Blake Griffin got hurt vs Texas on Feb 21 and then lost a tough one-point game to OSU in the Big 12 tourney. The Sooners, who average 79.2 PPG and shoot 48.8 percent as a team (6th-best in the nation), know that a 6-8 freshman (Thompson) is no match for Blake Griffin inside and when he dominates that matcup, the perimeter shots will be wide-open. Bozeman's return to the "Big Dance" ends in the first round. Lay the points with the Sooners.
TEDDY COVERS
Maryland @ California
PICK: Maryland
If you look at season long numbers, it’s not hard to make a case for Cal here. The Bears have been real over-achievers this season. They are the best three point shooting squad in the country, hitting 43% from beyond the arc as a team. I’ll give head coach Mike Montgomery all the credit in the world. Remember, the Bears lost two NBA draft picks from a team that went 6-12 in the PAC-10 last year and lost in the first round of the NIT, but improved to 22 wins overall and 11-7 in PAC-10 play this year.
But Cal did not play their best basketball down the stretch. They lost four out of six entering the Big Dance, and won only twice in their final eight non-home games, with one of those wins coming against hapless Oregon. The Bears do not play much defense and they consistently get beaten on the boards; a team with limited size and depth inside.
A season long look at Maryland leaves them squarely in the mediocre category, but the Terps have most assuredly played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. Maryland with have the best player on the court, unselfish leader Greivis Vasquez, who lit up both North Carolina and Wake Forest in upset wins over the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons. Maryland had problems with bigger teams all year long – they don’t have much interior size or depth either – but Cal isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness. I’ll take the team playing their best basketball now over the team that peaked a month or two ago.
DOC
Cal State Northridge @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #724 Take Memphis over Cal State Northridge (12:25 pm CBS) The Tigers are disappointed that they did not earn a No. 1 seed and expect them to take out their frustration on the Matadors. This is not a good match-up for Northridge and I fully expect this one to get ugly early. For all the crap Memphis takes for playing in Conference USA, but the Big West is much worse ranking eight spots lower in the conference rpi rankings. Despite having three losses on the season, the Tigers average margin of victory is 17 points and they will make an early statement on Thursday and advance on in the tournament with a rout behind Tyreke Evans and company. Doc’s Sports has you covered all day with winners from the NCAA Tournament. We have 37 years of experience and would love to have you along with for the winning ride.
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the points with Western Kentucky.
How can you not at least make a small play on the Hilltoppers!?!??!
Illinois is a very solid defensive team that is pretty good overall, I do admit that. The Fighting Illini went 24-9 for the season and when fully healthy are clearly superior to today's opponent. But Chester Frazier is probably not going to be able to go and that is absolutely monstrous. No team can just lose their point guard and be expected to smack another quality team around like this, just look at how poorly North Carolina just played without Ty Lawson.
Bruce Weber is a very solid coach who did a great job with this program this season but let's be honest here, the Illini are allergic to scoring points at times and have no business laying a full handful like this in a neutral site all the way across the country in Oregon. They come into this thing having lost three of their last four games and the ony win came against a mediocre Michigan team that was on a back-to-back. Also Weber's boys have not gone North of 70 points since early January meaning that they can win this game and easily not cover the number.
The Hilltoppers are probably not as good this season as last but Ken McDonald's boys still went a very solid 24-8 overall and 15-3 in the Sun Belt. They stunned Louisville earlier in the season and have a few guys in AJ Slaughter and Sergio Kerusch among others who are no joke.
WKU has won seven straight games and 11 of 12. I'm not saying they are going to advance today but they definitely could and even if they don't the number definitely could prove to be a bit much for the low scoring Illini.
Jake Timlin
Rounding out the first day of the tournament I look for Binghamton to stay well inside the lofty number Duke is laying. Sure Duke is in no danger of losing to the Bearcats, but asking for the Blue Devils to cover a big number is going to tough. You see for Duke they are just 8-13 ATS when laying double digits since ’99 and given the let up in the second half Binghamton will have every opportunity to say within the twenty point margin. Helping Binghamton in keeping things closer than expected will be their leading scorer who in Rivera who is averaging 20 ppg and who will be supported by a pair talented teammates who could very well play at many higher lever programs. Plus, given the excitement that the Bearcats will have and wanting to show their stuff for this one game really makes me like the points. So in a game that they just might back-door I say take Binghamton plus the points.
PICK: Binghamton Bearcats
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2'
These teams met in last year's tournament in Anaheim, and A&M prevailed 67-62 as the one point favorite. We see a similar score today, but we see the Cougars being the team that prevails.BYU has won 10 of their last 12 straight up, and has covered in 9 of those 12. They catch the Aggies off that mind-boggling 22-point collapse in the Big 12 tournament against Baylor, and we are not sure Mark Turgeon's team has their minds straight after that debacle of a loss.
Good chance this game stays nip-and-tuck for the majority of the contest, then when BYU takes a little bit of a lead, the Aggies fragile mind-set costs them the contest.
Change of venue for this year's Big Dance meeting between the teams, and a change in the result.
Play on the Cougars minus the small number.
2? BYU
Bobby Maxwell
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2, at Philadelphia
Delivered the college Bonus Play winner Wednesday with Miami over Providence and we'll do it here with this one as we play BYU to get the win and cover over Texas A&M.
The best thing to happen to BYU might have been their Mountain West Conference semifinal loss to San Diego State. This team needed something like that to knock them down a notch and get them refocused.The Cougars have won nine of 11 overall and they were riding a nine-game ATS run until their last three regular season contests.
On the other side is Texas A&M who turned around its season by winning six in a row to close the Big 12 season after opening 3-7. But a disaster in the Big 12 tourney could be lingering with this team as they blew a 21-point second half lead to Texas Tech, losing 88-83 as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Devastating for a team to lose that one.
These teams met last year in the opener with A&M getting a 67-62 win as a one-point favorite. So there is also a revenge factor on the Cougars' minds.
BYU is on ATS runs of 7-3 as a favorite, 7-1 against winning teams and 10-3-1 after a straight-up loss. Play BYU today to pull off a close one, hit their free throws down the stretch and win this one by 7
2? BYU
Maryland +1' vs. California, at Kansas City, Mo.
No mystery here why we're playing Maryland. The Terps played some of their best basketball of the season late in the season to earn their berth in the Big Dance. Meanwhile Cal comes in playing some terrible basketball, stumbling to a 1-3 SU and ATS mark down the stretch.Cal is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS to end the season and lost to USC 79-75 in the Pac-10 quarterfinals on Thursday. The Bears are also on ATS slides of 1-4 on neutral courts, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-7 after a non-cover and 2-5 after a straight-up loss.Maryland made a run in the ACC tournament to secure its berth, beating N.C. State in the opener, shocking Wake Forest 75-64 as a six-point underdog in the quarterfinals and then battling Duke down to the wire before lostin 67-61 as a nine-point 'dog in the semifinals. And remember the amazing performance this team had to beat North Carolina 88-85 as a 12-point home 'dog late in the season.The Terps' Greivis Vasquez is a superstar in the making, putting up 17.2 points and 4.8 assists per game and he had a huge performance against the Tar Heels, getting a triple-double, the first for the Terps in 23 years.Maryland is on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action. Look for the Terps to get this one with relative ease.
4? MARYLAND
Karl Garrett
Akron vs. GONZAGA -13 - at Portland, OR
Another comp play winner last night on Bowling Green plus the points, as the G-Man is now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.
Going tonight, lay the points in Portland as Gonzaga enjoys the "home cooking" against Akron.
The 'Zags Spokane campus is not too far away from the Rose Garden, so expect to see plenty of Bulldog backers in the stands this evening. Not that Mark Few's team will need much support, as the Bulldogs have won their last 9, and even better still is the fact they have covered their last 3, and are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 lined games, all in the favored role.Akron won the MAC tournament for their automatic ticket to the Dance, but they did close the regular season by losing 3 of their final 5.
This is a Gonzaga team that has plenty of experience, and the G-Man is calling for the 'Zags to be dancing late in this tourny.
Lay the double-digits, as Gonzaga makes it look easy in their opening round.
5? GONZAGA
Michael Cannon
VCU +7' vs. Ucla, at Philadelphia, PA
I am on a 7-2 run with my last nine overall Bonus Plays.
Take the points with Virginia Commonwealth over Ucla in the East Region.
This is a tough spot for the Bruins, who have to travel to Philadelphia for this first round matchup.
Vcu enters this game on the heels of a five-game winning streak, which included a win in the Colonial Athletic Association championship game. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.Ucla is on pointspread slides of 1-5-1 after an ATS loss and 1-4-1 after a SU loss. The Rams are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win, 10-4 at neutral sites and 17-8-3 in non-conference action.The venue is what makes this a tough spot to back Ucla and I expect the scrappy Rams to give them a scare here.
Take the points with Vcu as they stay within the number.
2? VCU
Western Kentucky +4' vs. Illinois, at Portland, OR
Take the points with Western Kentucky tonight in the South Region over Illinois.
I love the run the Hilltoppers are on right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 down the stretch, including a current 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run.
This is a team that also stunned Louisville 68-54 as a 19 ½-point neutral-site underdog in November.
Western Kentucky had a nice run in last year’s tournament, posting a pair of wins before losing to Ucla in the Sweet 16, 88-78.
Illinois could be without starting guard Chester Frazier, who’s hand injury kept him out of last week’s Big Ten tournament.The Fighting Illini are on a 1-3 SUATS slide and are averaging just 59.4 ppg in their last five games.The Hilltoppers are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 16-5 on neutral courts, 5-1 as a neutral-site dog, 19-7-1 against winning teams and 40-17-1 in non-conference play. Take the points with Western Kentucky and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
4? WESTERN KENTUCKY
JACK JONES
North Carolina -25 over Radford
I am playing the Tar Heels today even though I fully expect Ty Lawson will be sitting on the sidelines. The line has dropped almost two points with the news Lawson will be out and that's just kept pace with what my expectations would have been. I know he's the catalyst for the offense, but North Carolina is putting up 90 ppg this year and will be facing a Radford team that went 21-11 with only one game being big enough to earn a point spread, and that was their conference championship against VMI. The Tar Heels will be playing in Greensboro, which is around 50 miles from campus so even without Lawson you can expect the Highlanders to be outmatched down the line. Sure Artsiom Parakhouski put up 16.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, but how is he going to do against last year's Player of the Year in Tyler Hansbrough? Not well.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Lakers -13
Off a 1-point home loss to Philadelphia, expect the Lakers to bounce back strong Thursday. The Warrior have been getting it handed to them on the road all season, losing by 9.8 ppg on average. In fact, the Lakers crushed the Warriors 130-113 as a 14.5-point favorite at home earlier this season. The Warriors are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 15-47-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU win. The Warriors are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. We'll lay the points here.<!-- / message -->
Tony Karpinski
Butler vs. LSU
Play:Butler +2.5
This team has played together for 4 straight years and play with chemistry. No one from the team has left early for the NBA and they are a veteran team which doesn't turn the ball over. They remind me of last years Davidson team, or George Mason of a few years ago. Butler is the play in this game.
LT Profits
Michigan +5.5
The Clemson Tigers got off to a tremendous start this season, but they sputtered badly down the stretch in the ACC and we feel they are an extremely vulnerable favorite here vs. the Michigan Wolverines.
Clemson went 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games, and they got knocked out in the first round of the ACC Tournament by a lightly regarded Georgia Tech team. As if that is not bad enough, this team also lost to Virginia a few games before this late skid started.
.
The Tigers are known for their pressure defense, but apparently teams have figured out how to solve them and find the open man. Clemson is allowing a hearty 78.4 points per game over the last five games, horrendously allowing those opponents to shoot 49.5 percent from the field.
Michigan finished at 20-13 SU and a nice 15-11-1, 57.7 percent ATS, and before losing in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois in a virtual road game, they had gone 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games with the lone ATS loss coming in overtime as an underdog.
Remember that this team did beat Duke and UCLA during the early non-conference portion of the schedule, so team has proven itself somewhat vs. quality competition, which helps negate the fact that this was a down year for the Big Ten.
Finally, do not forget that Michigan is a sparkling 11-3 ATS in post-season play over the last five years, and we look for the Wolverines to improve on that here with an outright upset.
Pick: Michigan +5.5
Who2BetOn
The Mississippi State Bulldogs may have won the SEC Tournament, but that does not mean much to us given the mediocrity of that conference this year, and we feel the Washington Huskies have a huge class edge here.
Yes, Washington lost to Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament, but there is no shame in that and the Huskies had won nine of their previous 10 games with the only loss coming on the road at UCLA. The regular season Pac-10 champs finished at 25-8, and they are also a sparkling 18-11-1 against the spread. The Huskies rank 16 in the Pomeroy Ratings, and they are a great offensive rebounding team that gets a lot of second chance points.
That is important here, as Mississippi State is a poor rebounding team. Sure, their conference tournament run brought them to 23-12 for the year, but again most of that came in a weak conference and because of this, the Bulldogs are ranked just 61 by Pomeroy. Also, Pomeroy ranks the Pac-10 second in the country as a whole, behind only the ACC and ahead of the Big East.
So the bottom line here is that Washington is the better team and they come from a much stronger conference, and that combination should result in a safe cover at what looks like a rather modest spot here.
Pick: Washington -5
Cajun Sports
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -9
Portland is coming off a ten point road win at Conseco Fieldhouse last night over the Pacers now must face the best home team in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland last played on Tuesday night and barely got by the Orlando Magic 97 to 93 as a 6.5 point home favorite. The Cavs are 17-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and 73-46 ATS the last three seasons. They are 22-9 ATS at the Q this year which is best in the league and face a Trailblazers team that is 14-19 SU and 13-20 ATS on the highway. Portland struggles on the road as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points going 2-6 ATS their last eight. Cleveland is 23-9 ATS versus the Northwest Division, 17-8 ATS versus teams from the Western Conference and has covered five of the last six in this series including five straight at home. Cleveland is 4 ½ games ahead of Boston in the East and a game ahead of the Lakers overall, each game holds significant value and Cleveland will not just win they play all out and should cover the number over this Portland team that is playing their fourth road game in five nights.
Graded Selection: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers 110 Portland Trailblazers 90
Craig Trapp
Texas A&M vs. BYU
Play: BYU -2.5
Sometimes when you look at a game you review all the trends and even though they are leaning to one team you still take the other team. Well today that is the case. All the trends go to favor A&M lets take a look at the trends and ATS records:
Recent Betting Trends:
Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog.
Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
ATS RECORDS
Texas A&M: 15-9 ATS overall 9-5 ATS away from home
BYU: 15-14 ATS overall 9-5 ATS away from home
BYU was defeated in last years tournament by A&M so this years rematch is much awaited by BYU. The whole off season the Cougars were motivated by the loss to A&M and they will win today and pay the loss back big time today. Big 12 is way over rated this year and many of A&M wins were against teams that did not make the tourney. If anyone watched the BYU @ ASU game you understand how good this Cougar team is losing by only 1 point. If BYU plays their well known team basketball they win going away. SCORE BYU 68 - Tex A/M 61
Nelly
California - over Maryland
Maryland came away with a big win over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament and nearly knocked off Duke but conference games are much different than tournament games and Terps will have trouble matching up as well against an unfamiliar foe. Maryland was crushed against Gonzaga, a team that compares favorably with many Pac-10 teams and the Terps closed the season going 7-10 but managed to win just enough of the key games to get into the dance. Maryland is grossly over-seeded at #10 as they were likely one of the last teams in the tournament field and Cal is the better scoring team and the better defensive team statistically despite playing in a more defense oriented conference. Both teams lost to Florida State by three-points in a common opponent game but Maryland also had several awful performances this season, and went 6-9 S/U in games away from home. California did not end the season ideally with a quick exit from the Pac-10 tournament to USC, but keep in mind that the tournament that the Trojans won was basically at home and Cal played them as tough as anyone on that run. Cal won at Washington, at Arizona, at Washington State, at UNLV, and at Utah this season so there has been several quality wins away from home. Maryland has not had much postseason success since the title run in 2002 and the Pac-10 is generally undervalued in the postseason based on the national fanfare for the ACC and the Big East. Cal's starting lineup is all upperclassmen and this Bears team is ready to make a dent in the tournament.
JIM FEIST
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS.
Take: UNDER
Reason: How many points and assists are the Warriors missing without Stephen Jackson and Jamal Crawford? 40.2 points, 11 assist per game. The Warriors also announced that starting center Andris Biedrins will miss at least two weeks with a sprained left ankle. That's a lot of offense on the shelf. They take on an angry Laker team that is off a last second home loss to the 76ers. LA is focused more on defense with the playoffs approaching, according to coach Phil Jackson, and they are on a 7-2 run under the total. Expect a strong defensive effort by the home team.
Play the Warriors/Lakers under the total.
Greg Daraban
VCU vs UCLA
The stage is set for the 2009 NCAA Tournament In what should be a solid set of games at Philly the Rams take on the Bruins. UCLA was 25-8 and played some very good ball for HC Howland VCU is good and will have the fan support but UCLA can win and cover in a hostile arena.They have several players including Shipp and Collison who have played in the Final 4.
Take 722 UCLA
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Portland
The Trailblazers take on King James on his court at the 'Q' in Cleveland as they look to avenge 6-point home loss suffered earlier this year in Portland. With the Cavs in off a home revenge win over Orlando and the Blazers 12-5 SU and ATS in same season revengers this season we'll grab the points with Portland here tonight.
Larry Ness
Morgan State at Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma
Todd Bozeman led California to the "Big Dance" three times, before he resigned in 1996 amid an NCAA investigation. He got the job at Morgan St three years ago and won just 13 games in his first season. The Bears went 14-2 last year and won the MEAC's regular season title but lost 62-60 to Coppin State in the MEAC championship game, on a driving layup with 2 seconds left. Coppin State advanced to the NCAA tournament at 16-20 (the most losses by any school to the make the NCAAs) while Morgan St lost 94-62 at Va Tech in the first round of the NIT. Morgan St won the MEAC regular season title again this year (13-3) and this time, won the tourney with an easy 83-69 win over Norfolk State. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid as the Bears earned their second MEAC tournament title and first since 1977. Nice story but Morgan St is in way over its head vs the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners, led by Blake Griffin (21.9-4.4), entered their game in Austin vs Texas 25-1 and poised to take over the AP's top spot with a win. However, Griffin went down with a concussion and the Longhorns won 73-68. Griffin wasn't able to play in the team's next game either, a home loss to Kansas. Griffin has returned but the Sooners lost their first game in the Big 12 tourney, 71-70 to Oklahoma St, and the Sooners enter this game 27-5 overall and a No. 2 seed. The Sooners are not deep but their starting-five is capable of making a Final 4 run. Griffin's 6-7 older brother Taylor (9.6-6.0) starts alongside his younger brother with three guards. Warren (14.7), a 6-5 freshman, has had an excellent season, joined by vets Crocker (9.6) who is 6-6, and PG Johnson (8.8-3.9 APG). OU's key reserves are the 6-6 Pattillo (7.1-3.9) and guard Davis (5.1). Morgan St employs a three-guard lineup as well, with Holmes (16.9-5.5), Bolen (9.2-4.9 APG) and Barnes (8.6). The 6-5 Kately (11.0-5.4) is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-8 freshman Thompson (8.9-7.0). The Sooners were well on their way to a No. 1 seed when Blake Griffin got hurt vs Texas on Feb 21 and then lost a tough one-point game to OSU in the Big 12 tourney. The Sooners, who average 79.2 PPG and shoot 48.8 percent as a team (6th-best in the nation), know that a 6-8 freshman (Thompson) is no match for Blake Griffin inside and when he dominates that matcup, the perimeter shots will be wide-open. Bozeman's return to the "Big Dance" ends in the first round. Lay the points with the Sooners.
TEDDY COVERS
Maryland @ California
PICK: Maryland
If you look at season long numbers, it’s not hard to make a case for Cal here. The Bears have been real over-achievers this season. They are the best three point shooting squad in the country, hitting 43% from beyond the arc as a team. I’ll give head coach Mike Montgomery all the credit in the world. Remember, the Bears lost two NBA draft picks from a team that went 6-12 in the PAC-10 last year and lost in the first round of the NIT, but improved to 22 wins overall and 11-7 in PAC-10 play this year.
But Cal did not play their best basketball down the stretch. They lost four out of six entering the Big Dance, and won only twice in their final eight non-home games, with one of those wins coming against hapless Oregon. The Bears do not play much defense and they consistently get beaten on the boards; a team with limited size and depth inside.
A season long look at Maryland leaves them squarely in the mediocre category, but the Terps have most assuredly played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. Maryland with have the best player on the court, unselfish leader Greivis Vasquez, who lit up both North Carolina and Wake Forest in upset wins over the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons. Maryland had problems with bigger teams all year long – they don’t have much interior size or depth either – but Cal isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness. I’ll take the team playing their best basketball now over the team that peaked a month or two ago.
DOC
Cal State Northridge @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #724 Take Memphis over Cal State Northridge (12:25 pm CBS) The Tigers are disappointed that they did not earn a No. 1 seed and expect them to take out their frustration on the Matadors. This is not a good match-up for Northridge and I fully expect this one to get ugly early. For all the crap Memphis takes for playing in Conference USA, but the Big West is much worse ranking eight spots lower in the conference rpi rankings. Despite having three losses on the season, the Tigers average margin of victory is 17 points and they will make an early statement on Thursday and advance on in the tournament with a rout behind Tyreke Evans and company. Doc’s Sports has you covered all day with winners from the NCAA Tournament. We have 37 years of experience and would love to have you along with for the winning ride.
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the points with Western Kentucky.
How can you not at least make a small play on the Hilltoppers!?!??!
Illinois is a very solid defensive team that is pretty good overall, I do admit that. The Fighting Illini went 24-9 for the season and when fully healthy are clearly superior to today's opponent. But Chester Frazier is probably not going to be able to go and that is absolutely monstrous. No team can just lose their point guard and be expected to smack another quality team around like this, just look at how poorly North Carolina just played without Ty Lawson.
Bruce Weber is a very solid coach who did a great job with this program this season but let's be honest here, the Illini are allergic to scoring points at times and have no business laying a full handful like this in a neutral site all the way across the country in Oregon. They come into this thing having lost three of their last four games and the ony win came against a mediocre Michigan team that was on a back-to-back. Also Weber's boys have not gone North of 70 points since early January meaning that they can win this game and easily not cover the number.
The Hilltoppers are probably not as good this season as last but Ken McDonald's boys still went a very solid 24-8 overall and 15-3 in the Sun Belt. They stunned Louisville earlier in the season and have a few guys in AJ Slaughter and Sergio Kerusch among others who are no joke.
WKU has won seven straight games and 11 of 12. I'm not saying they are going to advance today but they definitely could and even if they don't the number definitely could prove to be a bit much for the low scoring Illini.
Jake Timlin
Rounding out the first day of the tournament I look for Binghamton to stay well inside the lofty number Duke is laying. Sure Duke is in no danger of losing to the Bearcats, but asking for the Blue Devils to cover a big number is going to tough. You see for Duke they are just 8-13 ATS when laying double digits since ’99 and given the let up in the second half Binghamton will have every opportunity to say within the twenty point margin. Helping Binghamton in keeping things closer than expected will be their leading scorer who in Rivera who is averaging 20 ppg and who will be supported by a pair talented teammates who could very well play at many higher lever programs. Plus, given the excitement that the Bearcats will have and wanting to show their stuff for this one game really makes me like the points. So in a game that they just might back-door I say take Binghamton plus the points.
PICK: Binghamton Bearcats
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2'
These teams met in last year's tournament in Anaheim, and A&M prevailed 67-62 as the one point favorite. We see a similar score today, but we see the Cougars being the team that prevails.BYU has won 10 of their last 12 straight up, and has covered in 9 of those 12. They catch the Aggies off that mind-boggling 22-point collapse in the Big 12 tournament against Baylor, and we are not sure Mark Turgeon's team has their minds straight after that debacle of a loss.
Good chance this game stays nip-and-tuck for the majority of the contest, then when BYU takes a little bit of a lead, the Aggies fragile mind-set costs them the contest.
Change of venue for this year's Big Dance meeting between the teams, and a change in the result.
Play on the Cougars minus the small number.
2? BYU
Bobby Maxwell
Texas A&M vs. BYU -2, at Philadelphia
Delivered the college Bonus Play winner Wednesday with Miami over Providence and we'll do it here with this one as we play BYU to get the win and cover over Texas A&M.
The best thing to happen to BYU might have been their Mountain West Conference semifinal loss to San Diego State. This team needed something like that to knock them down a notch and get them refocused.The Cougars have won nine of 11 overall and they were riding a nine-game ATS run until their last three regular season contests.
On the other side is Texas A&M who turned around its season by winning six in a row to close the Big 12 season after opening 3-7. But a disaster in the Big 12 tourney could be lingering with this team as they blew a 21-point second half lead to Texas Tech, losing 88-83 as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Devastating for a team to lose that one.
These teams met last year in the opener with A&M getting a 67-62 win as a one-point favorite. So there is also a revenge factor on the Cougars' minds.
BYU is on ATS runs of 7-3 as a favorite, 7-1 against winning teams and 10-3-1 after a straight-up loss. Play BYU today to pull off a close one, hit their free throws down the stretch and win this one by 7
2? BYU
Maryland +1' vs. California, at Kansas City, Mo.
No mystery here why we're playing Maryland. The Terps played some of their best basketball of the season late in the season to earn their berth in the Big Dance. Meanwhile Cal comes in playing some terrible basketball, stumbling to a 1-3 SU and ATS mark down the stretch.Cal is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS to end the season and lost to USC 79-75 in the Pac-10 quarterfinals on Thursday. The Bears are also on ATS slides of 1-4 on neutral courts, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-7 after a non-cover and 2-5 after a straight-up loss.Maryland made a run in the ACC tournament to secure its berth, beating N.C. State in the opener, shocking Wake Forest 75-64 as a six-point underdog in the quarterfinals and then battling Duke down to the wire before lostin 67-61 as a nine-point 'dog in the semifinals. And remember the amazing performance this team had to beat North Carolina 88-85 as a 12-point home 'dog late in the season.The Terps' Greivis Vasquez is a superstar in the making, putting up 17.2 points and 4.8 assists per game and he had a huge performance against the Tar Heels, getting a triple-double, the first for the Terps in 23 years.Maryland is on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action. Look for the Terps to get this one with relative ease.
4? MARYLAND
Karl Garrett
Akron vs. GONZAGA -13 - at Portland, OR
Another comp play winner last night on Bowling Green plus the points, as the G-Man is now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.
Going tonight, lay the points in Portland as Gonzaga enjoys the "home cooking" against Akron.
The 'Zags Spokane campus is not too far away from the Rose Garden, so expect to see plenty of Bulldog backers in the stands this evening. Not that Mark Few's team will need much support, as the Bulldogs have won their last 9, and even better still is the fact they have covered their last 3, and are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 lined games, all in the favored role.Akron won the MAC tournament for their automatic ticket to the Dance, but they did close the regular season by losing 3 of their final 5.
This is a Gonzaga team that has plenty of experience, and the G-Man is calling for the 'Zags to be dancing late in this tourny.
Lay the double-digits, as Gonzaga makes it look easy in their opening round.
5? GONZAGA
Michael Cannon
VCU +7' vs. Ucla, at Philadelphia, PA
I am on a 7-2 run with my last nine overall Bonus Plays.
Take the points with Virginia Commonwealth over Ucla in the East Region.
This is a tough spot for the Bruins, who have to travel to Philadelphia for this first round matchup.
Vcu enters this game on the heels of a five-game winning streak, which included a win in the Colonial Athletic Association championship game. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.Ucla is on pointspread slides of 1-5-1 after an ATS loss and 1-4-1 after a SU loss. The Rams are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win, 10-4 at neutral sites and 17-8-3 in non-conference action.The venue is what makes this a tough spot to back Ucla and I expect the scrappy Rams to give them a scare here.
Take the points with Vcu as they stay within the number.
2? VCU
Western Kentucky +4' vs. Illinois, at Portland, OR
Take the points with Western Kentucky tonight in the South Region over Illinois.
I love the run the Hilltoppers are on right now. They have won 11 of their last 12 down the stretch, including a current 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run.
This is a team that also stunned Louisville 68-54 as a 19 ½-point neutral-site underdog in November.
Western Kentucky had a nice run in last year’s tournament, posting a pair of wins before losing to Ucla in the Sweet 16, 88-78.
Illinois could be without starting guard Chester Frazier, who’s hand injury kept him out of last week’s Big Ten tournament.The Fighting Illini are on a 1-3 SUATS slide and are averaging just 59.4 ppg in their last five games.The Hilltoppers are on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 16-5 on neutral courts, 5-1 as a neutral-site dog, 19-7-1 against winning teams and 40-17-1 in non-conference play. Take the points with Western Kentucky and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
4? WESTERN KENTUCKY
JACK JONES
North Carolina -25 over Radford
I am playing the Tar Heels today even though I fully expect Ty Lawson will be sitting on the sidelines. The line has dropped almost two points with the news Lawson will be out and that's just kept pace with what my expectations would have been. I know he's the catalyst for the offense, but North Carolina is putting up 90 ppg this year and will be facing a Radford team that went 21-11 with only one game being big enough to earn a point spread, and that was their conference championship against VMI. The Tar Heels will be playing in Greensboro, which is around 50 miles from campus so even without Lawson you can expect the Highlanders to be outmatched down the line. Sure Artsiom Parakhouski put up 16.3 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, but how is he going to do against last year's Player of the Year in Tyler Hansbrough? Not well.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Lakers -13
Off a 1-point home loss to Philadelphia, expect the Lakers to bounce back strong Thursday. The Warrior have been getting it handed to them on the road all season, losing by 9.8 ppg on average. In fact, the Lakers crushed the Warriors 130-113 as a 14.5-point favorite at home earlier this season. The Warriors are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 15-47-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU win. The Warriors are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. We'll lay the points here.<!-- / message -->
300K Miami-Florida Outright!!Today's Complimentary Selection <o>My clients know I've followed Maryland closely all season, riding them in both their ACC tourney wins against NC State & their cover against Duke this past Saturday. However, that being said, I DO NOT like this match up for the Terps, who I believe are one of more inconsistent teams coming into the Mania, and it'll show this afternoon.
We all know about star G Grievis Vasquez, but its the rest of this Maryland roster that should have their backers worried. Yes, Eric Hayes erupted for 20 points on 9 of 13 shooting against Duke (helping secure the cover), but he's also capable of long stretches of ineffectiveness, scoring 6 points or fewer in 7 games this season. Not to mention the Terps only post threat, Milbourne, was invisible against Duke (6 points on 1 of 6 shooting). Guys, Milbourne & Hayes are the # 2 and # 3 scorers on this team, and needless to say they can be wildly inconsistent.
True, Cal comes into this game struggling a bit, but let's not get carried away! Yes, their loss at Oregon State was ugly, but losses to UCLA, and at revenge-seeking Arizona St, and USC on a neutral court, is hardly something to be embarrased about. Those were tough losses, but I expect the Bears to regroup nicely this afternoon against a Maryland team just happy to be here.
Finally, the biggest mismatch of this contest, and the crux of my argument against Maryland is their piss-poor perimter defense versus one of the most efficient offenses in the all the land. Cal is the #1 team in the country in 3-point shooting, knocking them in 43% of the time, not to mention 48% from the field overall! Terrapins allow a ridiculous 42.5% shooting from beyond the arc on the road this season, and you better believe the Bears will take full advantage of that this afternoon. In the end, look for Maryland to cool off just as quick as they got hot this afternoon, as California bombards them from the 3-point line all game long!
Take California over Maryland in this college hoops match up.
</o
2♦ CALIFORNIA
On a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale
Yes, they won the SEC tournament. Yes, they've won 6 in a row SUATS. So, does that mean the Bulldogs are the play here? The answer is a definative NO, and here's why:
While I can understand the betting public being ecstatic at getting this many points with a "red-hot" Bulldogs team, I'm not convinced. The SEC was total garbage this season, so being the conference champion really means nothing to me. Think about it, Georgia and South Carolina were below average, while both Louisiana State and Tennessee were incredibly inconsistent this season. In other words, the public is overestimating a good, but NOT great Bulldogs team in this one.
Its common knowledge that you want the team your backing to have played well down the stretch. While many people are pointing to the Bulldogs 6 game win streak, they fail to acknowledge the fact the Huskies have won 6 of their last 7 games, including wins over Arizona State and Arizona. Washington is by no means a pushover, and the Bulldogs will find that out the hard way today.
Next, I have a real problem with Mississippi State overall inconsistency, and the fact they're more likely than not, "just happy to be here" (which is the last thing you want). Focus will be key in this game, especially considering some really questionable road losses by this Bulldogs team (see losses at Cincy a 12-point loss, LSU a 24-point loss, Auburn a 15-point loss, to name a few). I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see the Bulldogs come out a little flat after their run in conference tourney.
Finally, looking at this game from a match up standpoint, you really start to see the issues for this Bulldogs team. Key to the Huskies success is their ability to attack Varnardo with Brockman and the rest of their forntline. If and when Varnardo gets in foul trouble, thats when you can expect the Huskies to widen the margin. Also, no doubt, you take Thomas and Dentmon over the Bulldogs backcourt. In the end, this is a bad match up for a Bulldogs team that being overestimated by the public in this one.
Small play on Washington over Mississippi State in this college hoops match up.
1♦ WASHINGTON
^^^^
You know what you sound like that douchbag that was giving Mcqueen shit yesterday for posting dupes. It doesnt matter what you do people will always complain. Besides you dont pay for Roots plays anyway and you dont have the $500 to throw up for his No Limit. A member at another forum has a lifetime subscription to Root so shut your fucking mouth!
^^
Nope, I love Steve and what he does. Don't bring in other people to defend your stupidness like your contributing to the forum by posting picks of peoples free picks lol.
Do me a favor can you get Langs free pick for me its so tough to get. ^^
Jeff Benton
Someone just posted on the service plays board:
Jeff Benton
Thursday's Big Dance winners ...
30 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU) ... NOTE: If this line is sitting at 7 1/2, invest in some insurance and buy the half-point and only lay 7. DO NOT get beat by the hook in this game!
10 Dime: WASHINGTON (minus the points vs. Mississippi State)
5 Dime: WESTERN KENTUCKY (plus the points vs. Illinois)
5 Dime: CHATTANOOGA (plus the points vs. UConn)
<!-- / message -->
Someone just posted on the service plays board:
Jeff Benton
Thursday's Big Dance winners ...
30 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU) ... NOTE: If this line is sitting at 7 1/2, invest in some insurance and buy the half-point and only lay 7. DO NOT get beat by the hook in this game!
10 Dime: WASHINGTON (minus the points vs. Mississippi State)
5 Dime: WESTERN KENTUCKY (plus the points vs. Illinois)
5 Dime: CHATTANOOGA (plus the points vs. UConn)
<!-- / message -->
